Marvin Musquin has made me a believer. Feature photo by: Hoppenworld
Heading into the 2018 Monster Energy Supercross season Marvin Musquin is my clear favorite. The main reason Marvin is my favorite: momentum. Marvin was fast last year and has already achieved his first and second wins and arguably his third if you count the race in New Jersey where he pulled over and let Ryan Dungey win.
When Dungey retired after the 2017 Monster Energy Supercross series ended, something clicked in Marvin and he instantly appeared more confident. His Achilles heel will be the whoops, especially when they stay solid and need to be skimmed. Unless the whoops at all 17 rounds are made up of dirt from Phoenix, Marvin is most likely to be the champion. Even on tracks where skimming whoops is the fastest line, Marvin still finds a way to jump through them almost as fast as the other riders skimming them. Much like a side arm pitcher in baseball, jumping whoops is not the recommended technique but if it works….do it! With Marvin jumping through the whoops he can run a softer suspension setup which allows for more corner traction. Marvin is my pick for the 2018 title.
A close second to Marvin is Eli Tomac. Some may question my reasoning for not choosing a rider who won 9 races and the Lucas Oil Outdoor 450MX Motocross Championship as my favorite. Eli has not demonstrated consistency under pressure. Even with his outdoor championship, I am not completely sold that he is mentally ready to be the Supercross Champion. With that said I would not be surprised if Eli wins enough races early in the season, putting himself in a situation where he could cruise to the title. Eli’s weakness is high pressure “choking” as he has the speed to win the early races and provide himself a pressure free avenue to the championship. I do not think this will be the scenario because Marvin is riding so well and Ken Roczen will be in the mix.
The rider I predict will finish 3rd in the series is Ken Roczen. Ken is definitely the most talked about rider this offseason. He is coming back from one of the most horrific arm injuries we have ever seen. Not only is he lucky to be racing again, he is lucky to have use of his arm. Yes, the injury and subsequent surgeries were as bad as I have ever seen in the sport. Until he jumped through his handlebars and came crushing to the ground at Anaheim 2, he appeared to have the field covered and was the odds on favorite for the 2017 title.
I saw Roczen ride in August 2017 and he looked as smooth as ever! If his arm holds up to the intense pounding of Supercross, look for him to be an instant contender, but that is also a big “if.” I fully expect Roczen to compete and win races, but I believe he will battle nagging pain and swelling in his surgically repaired arm. I am very excited to see him racing again. Roczen is brash, confident and not one to bite his tongue. Roczen tells us exactly what he is thinking and the sport is in dire need of personality. The days of riders mumbling their sponsor list during interviews and ignoring a reporter’s questions is in need of change. Roczen is a great example for the next generation of Supercross riders to emulate. For the sport of Supercross to grow, we need riders to stop hiding behind cliché answers and be more genuine.
Another rider who can, but probably will not, win the 2018 Supercross title is Jason Anderson. I have him coming in at 4th or 5th this year. I do not see him ever winning a major 450 title as he is too inconsistent with his riding—only being consistent when it comes to making enemies. When push comes to shove, riders need all the help they can get when chasing a championship. Anderson is constantly doing dumb things on and off the track. A perfect example is his move on Vince Friese at Anaheim 2 last year. I understand the guys are fed up with Friese and his swerving 450, but Anderson demonstrated his immaturity when he disregarded the rules while in the middle of a championship hunt and threw a punch at Friese. In the end, it is his behavior not his lack of talent as to why I do not think Anderson will come out on top at the end of 17 rounds. Anderson is getting dangerously close to becoming another rider who never realized his potential on a 450. He should take a look at Justin Barcia as a cautionary tale on how fast you can go from contender to fill-in rider.
The last rider I have in my top 5 is Blake Baggett. I have a feeling Blake could be a real title contender, but I haven’t seen him show the same intensity as he does outdoors. I have heard he is really fast at the practice track, but I heard that last year too. Blake did not race any offseason races as he had a ligament in his thumb repaired. This is his second year on the Rocky Mountain / WPS / KTM team so missing some time this offseason should not have much effect on his 2018 preparation. If Blake can get a couple of podium finishes or a win in the first three rounds, he could easily become a title threat. In reality, I believe he is an outdoor specialist that is solid in Supercross. I have Blake winning Daytona and spending a lot of time battling his rival Jason Anderson, but in the end, I have him ending the series in fifth place.
What do you think of my predictions? Let me know what you think will happen this season. Am I right? Am I a complete idiot? The great thing about the offseason is nobody is wrong until the racing starts.
