“Cooksey’s Hard Truth” presented by Scott Sports is a weekly editorial written by Chris Cooksey. Throughout the year, Chris will be diving in and out of controversial subjects and bringing you his hard truth about the racing and the riders from around the world.
Last week, I previewed the Monster Energy Supercross 2018 riders I consider the top five contenders. This week I am looking at “the other guys,” the riders that will most likely be inside the top ten but not necessarily contenders. Also, I will bring attention to a few polarizing guys who I do not think are top ten material, but are worth discussing.
Let’s start with Chad Reed. Reed is a guy who has been making journalists eat their words for years, almost to the point where no one is willing to count him out. Fortunately, I am not one of those guys. As much as I respect his career accomplishments and mental strength, father time remains undefeated! I would love to see Reed turn back the clock and be a true contender, but there is too much stacked against him. First, he is recovering from a pretty serious leg injury suffered at the Red Bull Straight Rhythm. Added to his leg injury, Reed is financing his own team from a Fun Mover trailer on a Husqvarna that he claims he only started riding last week (I have my doubts about that). Combine these obstacles with his advanced age (he will be 36 by the season end) and it is safe to assume this is the season fans accept the fact that Reed will never be a contender again. At best, I have Reed finishing 12th in the final 2018 standings. I am NOT saying he should retire, though. As long as he enjoys racing, I will enjoy watching. Maybe Reed could use his status to help draw attention to riders in the pack that need it. I would love to see Supercross begin paying decent money throughout the field, but that’s another subject.
The rider I feel will finish sixth in 2018 is Dean Wilson. Dean earned his way onto the Rockstar Husqvarna team looking like the rider he was when he won 250 races. Even though Dean is riding decent and is the feel good story of 2017, I do not see him breaking into the top 5. I fully expect a few podium finishes and with some serious good luck he could win a race. With Dean running the number 15, it’s difficult to not draw comparisons to another rider who used the same number, Tim Ferry. Both riders had a series of injuries that sent them to the privateer ranks and both riders worked their way back onto factory teams. Tim had a flowing style that looked effortless at times, like Dean.
[Edit: After posting my Hard Truth column it was brought to my attention I forgot Cole Seely. While profiling who I thought would be 6th – 10th I am embarrassed that I forgot a rider who has finished inside the top 10 the last 3 years. Ken Roczen casts such a huge shadow and I completely missed Seely, but after a little thought am making him my 6A rider. He will be in the mix for podiums and if the circumstances present themselves he can win. Seely will spend much of the season battling with Wilson, Anderson and Baggett as part of the group of riders behind Tomac, Roczen and Musquin. This is Seely’s 4th year on a Factory Honda and if he doesn’t show a significant improvement he might be looking for a ride at the end of 2018. Seely is in the final year of the 2 year extension he signed in August of 2016.]
Cooper Webb blew into the 2017 series under great hype. As the new kid on the block, a series championship was not expected, but podiums and a win or two were anticipated. By Cooper’s standards the season was a bust. Unfortunately, he and his entourage blamed the bike. This is never a good look for a rider, even when it is the bike. I believe this is a direct result of Chad Reed’s influence. While Reed is considered an all-time great, he is well known for not biting his tongue when talking about his bike. This is one of the reasons Reed has been on so many different teams. Cooper needs to keep his head straight and ride what he has available. Rumors have him wanting to ride a KTM in 2019. For Cooper to earn a KTM contract, he will need more than last year’s standings. I am picking Cooper for 7th in the series.
The rider I have in 8th is Broc Tickle. If you would have asked me where he would end up before analyzing the field, I would have easily guessed 5th or 6th. With his new ride at Red Bull KTM and joining the Baker Factory, he should be solid. When I think of this team and bike, I assume he is a contender, but I need to see this before I can consider him a top guy. This is a make or break year for Broc; he now has everything the previous champion had. If he is unable to achieve consistent podiums or a win with this team, trainer and bike, this could be the last factory ride he gets.
Weston Peick is my pick to finish the year in 9th. While I am confident I could win a fist fight with most Supercross racers, Weston is not one of them. Seriously, though, he is tough as hell and will do what he does best: grind out top ten finishes while mixing in a few top five finishes. One thing about Weston is he gives everything he has until the end. It is inspiring to watch him manhandle his bike. What he lacks in technique he makes up for with raw strength. If he can maintain some early confidence, look out. Weston will be a serious thorn in the sides of the guys who are supposed to win. He doesn’t care who they are or what they have accomplished.
Rounding out the top 10 will be rider #10, Justin Brayton of MCR Honda. Brayton did what Brayton does and rode offseason races all over the world. He defended his Australian SX Championship and returns to the MCR Honda team. The story here is not Brayton, as he will be solid; the story is how the team has stepped up. Mike Genova and Tony Alessi lured legendary mechanic Tony Berlutti out of retirement. Berlutti brings a wealth of knowledge to the team and credibility they haven’t had in the past. I am excited to see this team get some top finishes with both Brayton and Jake Weimer.
Justin Bogle and Justin Barcia will join Chad Reed outside the top 10, but for different reasons. Bogle is an amazing talent, but has a tendency to make big mistakes in Supercross. Like the Lucas Oil Motocross he will show flashes of his talent but will not display consistency. I do expect to see some brilliant rides out of Bogle. It will be interesting to see if his gear sponsor Ansr continues to pay him all year as their parent company MAG has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy: (https://www.dealernews.com/Home/post/mag-tucker-rocky-and-affiliates-file-for-chapter-11-protection/2017-11-17). Barcia has given absolutely no indication he will be anything other than a main event participant. Barcia’s career is very similar to retired pro racer Damon Huffman. Both won regional Supercross Championships and tasted victory in the premier class. Barcia, like Huffman is uber talented, but can’t seem to bring back the magic he once possessed. He is a solid pro and being compared to Damon Huffman is not a slight, as both appeared destined for great things. Many riders would kill for either of their resumes, but watching both ride they are capable of stronger results.
The final rider I will profile is Malcom Stewart. He is riding a Seven Kawasaki out of a small rig. Last year he felt the pit presence didn’t reflect the amount of support he received. Malcom can do some amazing things on a motorcycle but his lack of conditioning prevents him from demonstrating his skill. The sport is definitely entertaining with the Stewart’s involved. I believe Malcom could win races if he trained at the same level as the top riders, but not sure if we will ever see that. Either way I like seeing a Stewart on the track!
Next week, I will preview some true privateers. I am going to ask polarizing former pro privateer James Eickel what struggles a privateer faces heading into the series. James has had some up and down times after he finished racing, and he is extremely candid about his struggles. It will be interesting to check in with him.
